Melbourne has claimed the title of Australia’s largest city by population, surpassing Sydney, and this shift can be attributed to a nuanced adjustment in city borders. The capital of the state of Victoria, Melbourne strategically included the district of Melton in its redrawn boundaries, allowing it to outpace Sydney, as reported by CNN affiliate 9News.
Contrary to initial projections by the Australian government, which foresaw Melbourne surpassing Sydney by 2031-32, the population dynamics unfolded sooner than anticipated. In the 2022 population statement, Australia’s federal government highlighted Melbourne’s imminent ascent as the largest city, a position it now holds with approximately 5.8 million residents, eclipsing Sydney by nearly 19,000 people.
The driving force behind Melbourne’s population surge lies in a confluence of factors, notably the strategic migration patterns of its residents. Professor Nick Parr, a demographer at Macquarie University, shed light on the phenomenon during an interview with Sydney radio station 2GB. He explained that more individuals have been departing Sydney for other parts of Australia than the influx of newcomers. In contrast, Melbourne has experienced net migration gains, with some years seeing more people move to Melbourne than leave.
Parr also emphasized the ongoing growth projections for both cities, indicating that while Sydney and Melbourne face challenges such as low birth rates, immigration will serve as a compensatory force. This trend aligns with the broader global migration patterns where individuals seek new opportunities and lifestyles in different regions.
Liz Allen, a demographer at the Australian National University, added more context to Melbourne’s demographic story. She pointed to the city’s robust growth, attributing it to a combination of international migration over the past decade, internal migration within Australia, and a natural population increase from births. Allen noted the attractiveness of Melbourne among recent waves of overseas migrants, particularly those born in India. The formation of strong community networks has contributed to a magnetic pull, attracting subsequent migrants from India to the Melbourne area.
However, not everyone is quick to acknowledge Melbourne’s claim to the title of Australia’s largest city. Allen, in particular, disputed this designation, citing a measure called the “Significant Urban Area classification.” According to her, this geographic measure, which played a pivotal role in tipping Melbourne’s population over the threshold, tends to be less stable over time. She argued that the more commonly used and stable standard geographic classification of the greater capital city still places Sydney as Australia’s most populous capital. Despite the current ranking, Allen acknowledged that, at the prevailing rate of population change, Melbourne is poised to overtake Sydney and secure the top spot in the coming decade.
In the midst of this demographic rivalry, often framed as a competition between Sydney and Melbourne, Allen offered a nuanced perspective, deeming it a “storm in a tea cup.” While the discourse surrounding the title shift has generated excitement and stirred the age-old Sydney versus Melbourne rivalry, Allen emphasized that the underlying factors contributing to this change are complex and dynamic. The narrative encapsulates the ebb and flow of population dynamics, migration patterns, and the evolving attractiveness of cities, painting a comprehensive picture of Australia’s urban landscape.
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