UN Tourism Agency Predicts Global Tourism to Return to Pre-Pandemic Levels by 2024

The United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) has indicated that international tourism is on track to surpass pre-pandemic levels in 2024, with an anticipated 2.0 percent growth above 2019 figures. This positive outlook is attributed to a projected resurgence in Asia, marking a noteworthy recovery in global tourism.

Recent data from the UNWTO emphasizes the industry’s resilience and rapid rebound, with expectations of reaching pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2024. In 2023, international tourist arrivals reached 1.3 billion, showcasing a 44 percent increase from the previous year and achieving 88 percent of the figures recorded in 2019.

Europe, renowned as the world’s most visited region, demonstrated a robust performance, reaching 94 percent of its 2019 tourism figures. Additionally, Africa achieved an even higher percentage, with tourism reaching 96 percent of pre-pandemic levels. These statistics underscore the recovery momentum in various parts of the world.

The UNWTO pointed out a particularly strong recovery in Asian markets, contributing to the overall positive trajectory. Notably, the Middle East emerged as the only region surpassing pre-pandemic levels, with a remarkable 22 percent increase in tourist arrivals compared to 2019.

In relative terms, the Asia-Pacific region exhibited a slower recovery, reaching only 65 percent of pre-pandemic levels. This is despite China lifting health restrictions a year ago after implementing a strict three-year zero-Covid strategy.

Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili emphasized the resilience and rapid recovery of global tourism, expressing confidence that pre-pandemic numbers will be fully restored by the end of 2024. However, he noted that the prediction for 2024 remains contingent on the pace of recovery in Asia and the evolution of existing economic and geopolitical risks.

China’s role in global tourism is expected to gain momentum, with Beijing offering visa-free travel for citizens of several European countries and Malaysia until the end of November. This move is anticipated to further stimulate Chinese tourism.

Nevertheless, the UNWTO acknowledged potential challenges to the optimistic forecast. Factors such as the Israel-Hamas conflict and uncertainties in the global economy pose risks to the predicted recovery. Persisting issues like inflation, high interest rates, volatile oil prices, and disruptions to trade could impact transport and accommodation costs throughout 2024.

In conclusion, the UNWTO’s positive outlook on the recovery of international tourism signals encouraging progress, with the expectation that the industry will regain its pre-pandemic vibrancy by 2024, contingent on various economic and geopolitical factors.